Christmas & Climate Change Debate - Prof. vs Blondie Cartoon

In today's paper, two statements were made about Christmas trees and the environment. One made by a professor of which I believe is a very passionate environmentalist and then a cartoon writer who may tend to prefer tradition over the environment. But which one put a better statement that helped to reduce a carbon footprint? The answer is the cartoonist. Let me explain.


I was pleasantly surprised this morning that the front page article about real versus artificial trees featured a family that is close to our family. It was nice reading that continued on A3 but the secondary headline on that page caught my eye.

"Debate: Professor says real trees can reduce global warming"

At this point, I knew that my enjoyment was probably over and my scientist hat would have to come on because the statement in most cases would not be correct. That part of the story was extremely flawed. I am going to leave names out of this because I have dealt with enough paper interviews to know that one of two things may have happened. I'm going to protect the professor as he may have been misquoted or misunderstood by the reporter. I'll also protect the paper because they could also have been misled due to the fact that this was a professor of forest ecology and tree physiology, and while he may be passionate about the topic, he really is not fully qualified to talk about climate change and greenhouse gasses.

The story attributes (but did not quote the professor) that real Christmas trees are always a better option because they do everything that a regular tree does, which includes reduction of global warming. He is quoted as saying "they take up CO2 and reduce CO2 level in the atmosphere, thus reducing global warming". The attribution is very vague and I'm not a fan of the statement, but his direct quote is true. Trees do take in CO2 which is a greenhouse gas and they are quite effect at this as a chart of CO2 levels shows and definitive reduction each year during the Northern Hemisphere growing season. However, the end of the paragraph shows a very grave error. "When people get rid of real Christmas trees, they decompose and release their nutrients back into the soil". Yes, a properly disposed and mulched tree will help garden soil, but the CO2 that was stored in the tree is then release back into the atmosphere. The same CO2 levels chart shows that there is a definitive increase during the winter when tree matter decomposes. Therefore, there really no "net gain" in combating greenhouse gasses. In fact, the burning of trees (which many do) and the placement in landfills will speed the negative effects of these live trees.

As you can tell, my Monday morning paper reading became a little more annoying than usual. But when I finished up with the comics, I found an environmental message in a Blondie cartoon, that while still had inaccuracies, it sent a better environmental message than the professor. Dagwood was at a tree farm in front of an "earth friendly" tree. He asked how that was possible and the salesman responded "it's silk! So it doesn't mess up the ozone's natural balance like nasty ol' planet-trashing pine trees". While ozone is very important, saving life by being in the upper atmosphere and being harmful near the ground, it is not really a factor in this fight. I think the writer was putting out a statement about the environment that technically is true; though Dagwood decided to take the guild-infested pine tree anyway.

So why do I say that the cartoonist put a better environmental statement than the environmentalist? It's simple and I will use myself as an example. My wife introduced to me to the tradition of cutting down a live tree each year. Meanwhile, my sister puts up the same artificial tree that my parents did from when I was a kid. Hands down, she is doing more for the environment in this case. She is not driving a car to get the tree. She is reusing plastic that will last forever. I try to make up for our family tradition in other ways. But I will not state that I am doing the environmentally correct thing to justify the live tree like our friendly professor. What I will do is what he failed and that is taking the opportunity to point out the perfect scenario. If you want to do your share, buy a live tree with a root ball. Once Christmas is done, plant the tree someplace where it will store decades of CO2 before breaking down after dying. Being truly environmental usually takes effort. Unfortunately, more effort than people are willing to do.

NOAA activates GOES-15 satellite; deactivates GOES-11 after nearly 12 years in orbit

For 12 years, GOES-11, one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites, tracked weather and severe storms that impacted the U.S. West Coast, Hawaii and the Pacific region. Today, NOAA began the process to deactivate the satellite, which is approaching the end of its useful life, and replace it with a new, more advanced spacecraft.

The new geostationary satellite, GOES-15, has taken the place of GOES-11 and now becomes NOAA’s GOES West spacecraft in a fixed orbit over the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and the West Coast and 22,300 miles above the equator. GOES-15 provides more data, with better resolution and image stability than GOES-11. GOES-15 joins NOAA’s other operational geostationary satellite, GOES-13, which serves as the GOES East spacecraft. The GOES are not only used for weather applications, but also track space weather, oceanographic changes, forest fires and other hazards, and provide scientific data collection and information for search and rescue operations.

Aware that GOES-11 was nearing the end of its fuel supply, NOAA personnel spent the past several months planning for the end of its mission. Deactivation of GOES-11 began today when data observations were shifted to GOES-15. On December 15, NOAA will fire the spacecraft’s booster, moving GOES-11 approximately 185 miles (300 km) above its current geostationary orbit, where it will be officially decommissioned.

“With its steady eye on dangerous weather conditions, GOES-11 served America well, providing the critical images and atmospheric measurements NOAA meteorologists needed to produce life-saving forecasts,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.

Launched May 3, 2000, GOES-11 was originally planned for a five-year mission, but lasted nearly seven years longer. “GOES-11’s extended service is testimony to the great work of Space Systems/Loral, NASA and the team of NOAA staff and contractors who acquired and managed the spacecraft ,” Kicza added.

In addition to GOES-15 and GOES-13, NOAA has two other geostationary satellites in orbit – GOES-12, which provides data for South America, and GOES-14, which is in a storage orbit as a ready backup or replacement.

NOAA is planning the next generation of geostationary satellites, called GOES-R, with the first set to launch in 2015. GOES-R is expected to more than double the clarity of today’s GOES imagery and provide more atmospheric observations than current capabilities with more frequent images. In addition, data from GOES-R instruments will be used to create many different products NOAA meteorologists and others will use to monitor the atmosphere, land, ocean and the sun.

Skier's Outlook

While some ski resorts were treated to an early season record snowfall in October, November was a warm month and a lot of skiers were disappointed with no resorts open at the end of the month. So now we look to the future. It’s very interesting because the main overall controller of the nation’s winter is the same this year as last year. There is a La Nina again in the Pacific Ocean. As you can see from the following graphic this tends to bring stormy weather to the Northwest and cold weather to the Northern Plains into the Midwest. There is also a strong signal for dry and mild weather for the southern United States. The signature is much weaker for the eastern part of the nation, but La Nina does make the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast more prone to mild weather.

Though as we saw last year, other things can trump the La Nina. What affects our weather has more to do with the Atlantic and the Arctic. Last year, a pattern of warmer weather over the arctic helped to push cold air into the east which helped feed some storms along East Coast. So far this year, we have not had as favorable conditions, but the warm pattern of November has changed and there are indications that the arctic is becoming poised to send cold air into the East before Mid-December and a colder pattern seems likely for at least a couple of weeks. This will set the stage for resorts to get open and in at least decent shape for the big holiday week. While a near to colder average pattern may last into early January, a turnaround to milder weather looks like it may occur for later January into February. Hopefully, the resorts will be able to build up nice before then with manmade and natural snow. The good news is that years similar to this usually try turn colder again by March. This may help for a later season than last year. As for storminess, there is always the chance for a big one, but the coastal systems may tend to not blow up until they reach New England. We may have weaker and sloppier events farther to the south.

When Will Winter's Cold Really Come?

While we've had a couple of chilly days, it would be hard to disagree that we've been locked in a fairly mild weather pattern for November. While the next seven days don't look as warm as earlier this week it is still going to be milder than average. I do see a change but not for a while. Here are the indicators that cold is coming but probably not until early December.

Let's start off with the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. In the winter, a negative NAO means there is a better chance for cold and storminess along the East Coast. As you can see, it's been a while since the NAO has been negative. In fact, the NAO is going to spike positive through the end of the month, but the red line which is showing the model forecasts is hinting for a change by the start of December.


Now let's look at the Arctic Oscillation. A positive Arctic Oscillation usually means that the cold is locked up more toward the pole. However, warming aloft results in a negative AO which then helps to push cold air southward away from the poles. Once again you can see the trend coming, but not for a while. But the models are indicating a crash toward early December which matches to what I think will be a push to some significant cold coming our way next month.


Now let's look at the Pacific/North American Pattern. A negative PNA usually means a trough in the west with cold and unsettled weather out there. A positive PNA means a ridge in the west and promotes a trough with cold in the east. As you can see below the PNA is negative but will be switching to a positive sharply at the end of the month.


The long range models are mixed. The European model is showing the cold starting to push at the end of the long holiday weekend. This model is one that has a lot of my faith in the winter months and has been doing quite well, but the indices and my past experiences tell me that it may be rushing in a little fast. Though take a look at the GFS model for early December. Some serious cold pushing our way.

Asteroid Will Pass Quite Close

Asteroid 2005 YU55 will track within 210,000 miles of the Earth. Sounds like a lot, but in terms of such a big rock passing this close, it's impressive. It's .85 the distance of the moon to the Earth and will be the closest rock of it's size since 1976. the next time an asteroid this large will pass this close is in 2028. The good news is that there is no threat to the Earth and their will be no influence here on the ground.

But it makes you think.

Global temperatures in September were eighth warmest on record

The Earth experienced its eighth warmest September since record keeping began in 1880. The annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent was reached on September 9 and ranked as the second smallest extent since satellite records began in 1979.

This monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

Global Temperature Highlights: September

· The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for September was the eighth warmest on record at 59.95 degrees F (15.53 degrees C), which is 0.95 degrees F (0.53 degrees C) above the 20^th century average of 59.0 degrees F (15.0 degrees C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.20 degrees F (0.11 degrees C).

· Separately, the global land surface temperature was 1.57 degrees F (0.87 degrees C) above the 20^th century average of 53.6 degrees F (12.0 degrees C), making this the fourth warmest September on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.43 degrees F (0.24 degrees C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across Europe, northern and western Africa, western Russia, the western and northeastern United States, Canada, and Mexico. Cooler-than-average regions included much of eastern Asia, and part of the central United States.

· The September global ocean surface temperature was 0.72 degrees F (0.40 degrees C) above the 20^th century average of 61.1 degrees F (16.2 degrees C), making it the 14^th warmest September on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 degrees F (0.04 degrees C). The warmth was most pronounced across the north central and northwest Pacific Ocean and within about the 30°N–40°N latitude belt across the Atlantic.

· The United Kingdom marked its warmest September since 2006 and sixth warmest in the last 100 years, at 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) above the 1971–2000 average.

· Spain had its warmest September since 1990 and fifth warmest for the past 50 years, at 3.2 degrees F (1.8 degrees C) above the 1971–2000 average.

Global Temperature Highlights: Year to date

· The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January – September period was 0.94 degrees F (0.52 degrees C) above the 20^th century average of 57.5 degrees F (14.1 degrees C), making it the 11^th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.18 degrees F (0.10 degrees C).

· The January – September worldwide land surface temperature was 1.44 degrees F (0.80 degrees C) above the 20^th century average — the seventh warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.36 degrees F (0.20 degrees C). The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.74 degrees F (0.41 degrees C) above the 20^th century average and was the 12^th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.07 degrees F (0.04 degrees C).

· La Niña conditions strengthened during September. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to gradually strengthen further and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011/12.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

· Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum extent on September 9 at 1.67 million square miles (4.33 million square km), marking the second smallest extent on record. In September 2007, the sea ice extent dipped to 1.61 million square miles (4.17 million square km). According to the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume, which depends on ice thickness and extent, dropped to 960 cubic miles (4,000 cubic km) on September 10, the smallest volume on record.

· The average Arctic sea ice extent for the month was 34.5 percent below average, ranking as the second smallest September extent since satellite records began in 1979. The extent was 938,000 square miles (2.43 million square kilometers) below average and 120,000 square miles (310,000 square kilometers) above the record low September extent set in 2007.

· On the opposite pole, sea ice extent typically reaches its annual maximum extent during September, but environmental conditions extended the ice growth season into October. The September Antarctic monthly average extent was 0.9 percent above the 1979–2000 average, the 14^th largest (19^th smallest) on record.

· September brought a mix of wet and dry conditions around the globe. Tropical cyclones Talas and Roke impacted Japan and nearby regions with intensive precipitation; Nesat brought extremely heavy rainfall to the Philippines; and Irene and Lee drenched the northeastern United States. Irene also dumped heavy rain over the Dominican Republic. The southwest Asian monsoon brought heavy precipitation to Pakistan and eastern India. Other regions with much higher-than-normal precipitation included Colombia in South America and part of southeastern Africa around Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania.

· Below-average precipitation anomalies across the southern tier of the United States are indicative of an ongoing major drought conditions. It was also exceptionally dry across the western United States, much of eastern and southern South America, particularly eastern Brazil, much of central Asia, including nearly all of Mongolia, and much of Australia.

· Spain experienced a much drier than normal September, with average rainfall across the country (16 mm / 0.63 in) about one-third of normal, making this month the driest September since 1988.

Good Hay Cutting Pattern... Yes, But Not As Good As You Think

After such a wet weather pattern, a lot of farmers are getting antsy to get out and cut some hay. For those who don't know about farming, the hay needs to dry before bailing. Moisture can cause a plethora of problems if it's in a bail of hay, including causing the hay to decompose at a high enough temperature to cause the hay to combust. So at this point, I hopefully have convinced you that we do need dry weather.

Many farmers look at 7 day forecasts to find the dry weather. They look for a period of at least 3 sunny days for the best conditions. While this practice works most of the year, when we head into October, that's not quite the case. Normally sunny weather means being under a center of high pressure. The center of high pressure also means little in the way of wind. With a clear sky and light winds, along with the longer nights at this time of the year, this is the prime set up for the formation of fog and dew. Even with the sunshine this time of the year, that's moisture that needs to evaporate and it takes longer than the other times of the year with a lower sun angle.

Earth Gauge Tip - Planting Trees

Did you know that planting one oak tree in your yard can save you money? A new oak sapling (one-inch in diameter) will save about 29 dollars over one year. Much of that money comes from the increase in property value that a tree provides, but your new tree will also absorb about 80 gallons of rain water runoff, improve air quality and reduce your energy bill. When your tree grows to six-inches in diameter, it will provide about 75 dollars in benefits each year!

This is a great time of year to add a tree to your yard. In the northeastern United States, new trees can be planted until early October. Cooler temperatures and rainfall help new trees establish healthy roots that will support new growth when spring rolls around next year.

• Find recommended native plant and tree species our area: www.wildflower.org/collections/
• Calculate the benefits of planting other types of trees: www.arborday.org/calculator/.

Bus-Sized satellite to re-enter Earth's atmosphere

UARS, a NASA satellite the size of a small bus, will re-enter Earth's atmosphere later this week and it has been grabbing a lot of attention as debris is predicted to make it to the earth's surface. In fact, there has been scientists who put the odds of debris of hitting someone at one in 3200. While this is still quite small, it is a statistically significant risk. Though the statistic has been misquoted by some reporters by saying that your chance of being it is one in 3200. Well, that's not quite true as the odds are for hitting one of the billions on the planet. So it's not as scary as it seems through some reports.

What you can expect though is a brilliant fireball somewhere over our planet. Best estimates place the re-entry time during the late hours of Sept. 23rd over a still-unknown region of Earth. Observers of the rapidly-decaying satellite say it is tumbling and flashing, sometimes almost as brightly as Venus. Video images are featured at http://spaceweather.com to show how the doomed satellite looks through a backyard telescope.

If you would like to catch a last glimpse of UARS streaking across the night sky should check SpaceWeather's Satellite Tracker for flyby times: http://spaceweather.com/flybys . You can also turn your smartphone into a UARS tracker by downloading our Simple Flybys app: http://simpleflybys.com

A Brisk Change to Autumn

Over the past couple of days, we seemed to have leapfrogged from the month of August right into October.  Temperatures topped out near 80 in many spots on Wednesday, while afternoon temperatures were only hovering in the 50s on Thursday after a potent cold front pushed on through.  I know I was a bit surprised when I left work Thursday afternoon and it felt so crisp despite the sun being out.  While we've had some damp, chilly days recently, that was probably the first cool, dry afternoon we've had since the spring.  After the cool day, we dropped to near 40 Thursday night and many outlying areas were in the 30s - it's a night we would typically see later in October, not in September.  DuBois hit 36 degrees Friday morning, and some of the outlying areas dropped to near the freezing mark, especially near and north of Interstate 80.

We didn't get the brunt of the cold air, though, which was centered over Minnesota.  The "Icebox of the Nation," located in International Falls, Minnesota, dipped down to 19 degrees Thursday morning.  That set a record as the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of September.  It was the first time since 1924 that Chicago recorded back-to-back high temperatures below 60 degrees.  And the front brought some much needed relief from the heat in Dallas, where the mercury hit 107 degrees on Tuesday, but didn't even hit 80 on Thursday.

The unseasonably cold air was thanks to a very strong area of high pressure (especially for this time of year) that came down from Canada.  Those of you that have home barometers may have noticed some high readings the past couple of days, up between 30.30" to 30.40" of mercury.  These strong highs give us our coldest nights in the winter, and this time brought us an early start to autumn.

Those of you that aren't ready for the cooler weather - don't worry.  70s will return to the forecast as the sun is still relatively strong this time of year and it's impossible to keep it this cool for the rest of the month.

--Meteorologist Brian Thompson

NOAA: Globe had eighth warmest August on record

The globe had its eighth warmest August since record keeping began in 1880, while June through August was the seventh warmest such period on record. The Arctic sea ice extent was the second smallest for August on record at 28 percent below average.

This monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

Global Temperature Highlights: August

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for August 2011 was the eighth warmest on record at 61.09 F (16.15 C), which is 0.99 F (0.55 C) above the 20^th century average of 60.1 F (15.6 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
• Separately, the global land surface temperature was 1.51 F (0.84 C) above the 20^th century average of 56.9 F (13.8 C), making this the second warmest August on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.32 F (0.18 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across most of North America and the northern half of South America, southern Greenland, eastern Russia, Mongolia, most of Europe, northern Africa to Southwest Asia, and southern Australia. Cooler-than-average regions included western Russia, Alaska, Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay.
• The August global ocean surface temperature was 0.79 F (0.44 C) above the 20^th century average of 61.4 F (16.4 C), making it the 12^th warmest August on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the north central, northwest, and south central Pacific Ocean, the north-central Atlantic, and the Labrador Sea.
• Scotland and Northern Ireland had their coolest average monthly August temperatures since 1993. Scotland was 1.4 F (0.7 C) below its 1971–2000 average of 55.2 F (12.9 C), while Northern Ireland was 1.3 F (0.8 C) below its average temperature of 57.6 F (14.2 C).
• Australia’s August 2011 average maximum temperature was the fifth warmest August in its 62-year period of record. The state of Tasmania had its all-time warmest August maximum and minimum temperatures on record.

Global Temperature Highlights: June – August

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June – August 2011 was the seventh warmest on record at 61.11 F (16.16 C), which is 1.01 F (0.56 C) above the 20^th century average of 60.1 F (15.6 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
• Separately, the global land surface temperature was 1.55 F (0.86 C) above the 20^th century average of 56.9 F (13.8 C), which was the third warmest June – August period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.29 F (0.16 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across Mexico, the eastern two-thirds of the United States and Canada, and most of Europe and Asia. Cooler-than-average regions included southern Alaska, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and northern Australia.
• The June – August global ocean surface temperature was 0.81 F (0.45 C) above the 20^th century average of 61.5 F (16.4 C), making it the 11^th warmest June – August on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the north central, northwest, and south central Pacific, the equatorial north Atlantic, and the Labrador Sea.

Global Temperature Highlights: Year to Date

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January – August period was 0.92 F (0.51 C) above the 20^th century average of 56.9 F (13.8 C), making it the 11^th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.18 F (0.10 C).
• The January – August worldwide land surface temperature was 1.40 F (0.78 C) above the 20^th century average — the seventh warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.36 F (0.20 C). The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.74 F (0.41 C) above the 20^th century average and was the 11^th warmest January-August period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.07 F (0.04 C).
• Last month, La Niña conditions returned. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011/12.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

• The average Arctic sea ice extent during August was 28 percent below average, ranking as the second smallest August extent since satellite records began in 1979. The extent was 830,000 square miles (2.15 million square kilometers) below average and 61,800 square miles (160,000 square kilometers) above the record low August extent set in 2007.
• According to model analysis by the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume, which depends on both ice thickness and extent, reached a record low of 1,026 cubic miles (4,275 cubic kilometers) on August 31, 2011, breaking the previous lowest volume set on September 15, 2010. The average August 2011 volume was 1,200 cubic miles (5,000 cubic kilometers). This value is 62 percent lower than the 1979–2010 average and 72 percent lower than the maximum in 1979.
• Conversely, the August 2011 Antarctic sea ice extent was 0.08 percent above the 1979–2000 average and was the 14^th smallest (20^th largest) August extent since records began in 1979.
• The June – August 2011 (Southern Hemisphere winter) was Australia’s first drier-than-normal season since September – November 2009 and was 12 percent below the 1971–2000 average.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world's climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

A La Nina Developing Again

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.

NOAA: U.S. experiences second warmest summer on record

NOAA: U.S. experiences second warmest summer on record

Texas has warmest summer on record of any state

The blistering heat experienced by the nation during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.

The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.

This monthly analysis, based on records dating back to 1895, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

U.S. Climate Highlights – August

· Excessive heat in six states – Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana – resulted in their warmest August on record. This year ranked in the top ten warmest August for five other states: Florida (3^rd), Georgia (4^th), Utah (5^th), Wyoming (8^th), and South Carolina (9^th).The Southwest and South also had their warmest August on record.

· Only nine of the lower 48 states experienced August temperatures near average, and no state had August average temperatures below average.

· Wetter-than-normal conditions were widespread across the Northeastern United States, which had its second wettest August, as well as parts of the Northern Plains and California. Drier-than-normal conditions reigned across the interior West, the Midwest, and the South.

· Hurricane Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, N.C., as a Category 1 storm on August 27, marking the first hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Ike in September 2008. Irene made a second landfall in New Jersey as a hurricane on August 28, marking only the second recorded hurricane landfall in that state.

· Irene contributed to New Jersey, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire having their wettest August on record. Meanwhile, Massachusetts (2^nd), Connecticut (2^nd), Delaware (3^rd), Maine (3^rd), Maryland (5^th), Pennsylvania (5^th), and Rhode Island (9^th) had a top 10 wet August.

· Several major U.S. cities broke all-time monthly rainfall amounts during August. New York City (Central Park) measured 18.95 inches of rain, exceeding the previous record of 16.85 inches in 1882. In Philadelphia, 19.31 inches of rain was observed, besting the previous monthly record of 13.07 inches in September 1999.

· Louisiana (3rd), Tennessee (4th), Texas (5th), Mississippi (6th), Georgia, (6th), Illinois (8th), Washington (9th), and Alabama (9th) had precipitation totals among their top ten driest on record.

· Despite record rainfall in parts of the country, drought covered about one-third of the contiguous United States, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index indicated that parts of Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas are experiencing drought of greater intensity, but not yet duration, than those of the 1930s and 1950s. Drought intensity refers to the rate at which surface and ground water is lost, due to a combination of several factors, including evaporation and lack of precipitation.

· An analysis of Texas statewide tree-ring records dating back to 1550 indicates that the summer 2011 drought in Texas is matched by only one summer (1789), indicating that the summer 2011 drought appears to be unusual even in the context of the multi-century tree-ring record.

U.S. Climate Highlights – Summer

· Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana had their warmest (June-August) summers on record. Average summer temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F and 86.5 degrees F, respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934 at 85.2 degrees F.

· Fifteen states had a summer average temperature ranking among their top ten warmest. West of the Rockies, a persistent trough brought below-average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, where Washington and Oregon were the only states across the lower 48 to have below-average summer temperatures.

· Texas had its driest summer on record, with a statewide average of 2.44 inches of rain. This is 5.29 inches below the long-term average, and 1.04 inches less than the previous driest summer in 1956. New Mexico had its second driest summer and Oklahoma its third driest summer. New Jersey and California had their wettest summers on record with 22.50 inches and 1.93 inches, respectively.

· The U.S. Climate Extremes Index, a measure of the percent area of the country experiencing extreme climate conditions, was nearly four times the average value was during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of the record, which dates to 1910. The major drivers were extremes in warm minimum and maximum temperatures and in the wet and dry tails of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.

· Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 22.3 percent above average during summer. This is the largest such value during the index’s period of record, which dates to 1895.

Other U.S. Climate Highlights

· During the six-month period (March-August), much-above-average temperatures dominated the southern and eastern United States. New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida, all experienced their warmest March-August on record. Cooler-than-average temperatures dominated the West and Northwest.

· For the year-to-date period, the average statewide temperature for Texas was 69.9 degrees F, the warmest such period on record for the state. This bests the previous record for the year-to-date period of 69.8 degrees F in 2000.

· For precipitation year-to-date, New Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana have all had their driest January-August periods on record, while Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut were record wet during the same period.

NCDC’s monthly reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as new scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

Global temperatures were seventh warmest on record for July

According to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the globe experienced its seventh warmest July since record keeping began in 1880. July’s Arctic sea ice extent was the smallest on record for that month since records began in 1979.

Global Temperature Highlights: July

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for July 2011 was the seventh warmest on record for that month at 61.43 F (16.37 C), which is 1.03 F (0.57 C) above the 20^th century average of 60.4 F (15.8 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
• Separately, the global land surface temperature for July was 1.51 F (0.84 C) above the 20^th century average of 57.8 F (14.3 C), making it the fifth warmest July on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.23 F (0.13 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across Northern Europe, western and eastern Russia, and most of North America. Cooler-than-average regions included central Russia, Western Europe, much of the western United States, and southwestern Canada.

• The July global ocean surface temperature was 0.85 F (0.47 C) above the 20^th century average of 61.5 F (16.4 C), making it the 11^th warmest July on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and in the north central and northwestern Pacific Ocean.
• July 2011 temperatures were above normal for all states and territories in Australia for the first month since April 2010. La Niña conditions during 2010/11 kept temperatures below normal across most of the country for more than a year.
• The United Kingdom average monthly July temperature of 57.4 F (14.1 C) was the coolest July temperature since 2000 at 0.9 F (0.5 C) below the long-term average, which dates back to 1910.The average minimum July temperature was the coolest for this month since 1980. Dublin Airport reported its coolest July in 46 years, with an average temperature of 56.8 F (13.8 C).

Global Temperature Highlights: Year to date

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January – July period was 0.92 F (0.51 C) above the 20^th century average of 56.9 F (13.8 C), making it the 11^th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
• The January – July worldwide land surface temperature was 1.40 F (0.78 C) above the 20^th century average — the eighth warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.36 F (0.20 C). Warmer-than-average conditions were prevalent across most of Russia, the Middle East, northern Africa, Europe, the southern United States, and Mexico. Cooler-than-average regions prevailed over the northwestern United States, southwestern Canada, and most of Australia.
• The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.74 F (0.41 C) above the 20^th century average and was the 11^th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the Labrador Sea, most of the central and western Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and much of the mid-latitude southern oceans.

• Neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions were present during July 2011. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with an equally likely chance of ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions thereafter.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

• The average Arctic sea ice extent during July was 21.6 percent below average, ranking as the smallest July extent since satellite records began in 1979. The extent was 81,000 square miles (210,000 square kilometers) below the previous July record low, set in 2007.
• The July 2011 Antarctic sea ice extent was 0.54 percent below average and was the 12^th smallest July extent since records began in 1979.
• Seoul, South Korea received more than 11.8 inches (300 millimeters) of precipitation on July 27, the heaviest single-day rainfall in the city since 1907.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world's climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

Yellowstone Forests in Peril? Frequent Fires Could Be the End of an American Icon

Wildfires that have been flaring up in the luscious forests and woodlands of Yellowstone are gradually changing the landscape of an American national treasure. The ever-evolving climate in the area is helping to increase the frequency of wildfires that burn hundreds of acres of forests to the ground. With rising temperatures speeding up the snow melting process in Spring, the landscape is able to dry out and heat up faster than ever before.

The last major outbreak of wildfires occurred in 1988, a time when over 1,200 square miles were left charred into twigs after fires roared on for weeks. Back then, conflagrations like these burst out almost every 100 years or so, but with the fires helping to heat the air above it and keep it warm in the long run, these wildfires will be able to grow larger and occur more frequently within the next century. Statistical projections show that by 2050, fires will burn on average about 400 square mile each year, but by 2075, those same projections predict the average to exceed the 1,200 square mile mark set in 1988. Although Yellowstone is covered by more than 10,000 square miles of forests, different wildfires in different areas of this size can spell doom for the woodlands.

Forests that collapse in these fires and regrow naturally, as the flares and ashes act as a natural fertilizer to help replenish the supply. If the fires indeed become more frequent, then more fires burning faster than the regrowth rate will create an eventual end to the iconic forests of a national landmark.

--Weather Intern Steve Engblom

Surfing the Sky

Undalatus Asperatus, sounds like a medical term or the chemical name for asparagus. Well, at least to me. However, these two words could be joining cumulus, nimbus, stratus, and cirrus; the cloud types that have not been tampered with since 1951. Undalatus Asperatus are Latin words which translate to agitated waves.

Recently, as more and more people are using camera phones, pictures and videos of such clouds are continuously being posted on the internet. They have been seen all over the globe and have been very common in the Plains states. These unusual, wave-like, ominous clouds are commonly seen in the morning or midday hours after a thunderstorm. As the clouds gained more and more popularity in 2009, Gavin Pretor-Pinney, founder of “The Cloud Appreciation Society” started to work with “The Royal Meteorological Society” to promote the naming of this new cloud type. Scientists found themselves arguing over the new classification as some thought there was no need to add another classification to the list that they believe cover the whole spectrum of clouds.

The new name has been recognized, however it has not joined the classification list as of yet. The debate continues, but take a look at the pictures for yourself from the Midwest, and even New Zealand here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2009/jun/01/2?picture=348217732#/?picture=348217732&index=0

Also, check out these clouds in motion on our Wild Weather page, http://wearecentralpa.com/wildweather! The video is called “Waves in the sky? Who knew?”

- Weather Intern Jacqueline Layer

Nation's Heatwave is Hurting Corn Crops

We recently ran a story of a local Ethanol plant declaring bankruptcy, citing corn prices as a primary reason. The recent heat wave across the nation’s heartland has been creating problems for more than just the individuals of the heat-stricken states. Corn, a staple crop for the US economy, is in danger of serious damage from the extreme heat. 2011 crops were slated to be especially large to accommodate recent demand, but with heavy rainfall and flooding in the Spring months, planting was delayed. The delay has set the current stage of growth in a very critical period. The corn ideally requires temperatures in the 80s with a stable source of water. However with record-high temperatures in the triple digits and high pressure keeping skies clear, the corn is beginning to wither. On Tuesday July 26th, 35-40% of farmers reported that their crops have been damaged by the heat. Already this has raised the price of corn 12.25 cents to $6.6875 a bushel. Aside from causing an influx in the prices in the corn later in the year, the smaller harvests are expected to raise gas, meat, and dairy prices.

- Weather Intern Tom Bedard

A Historic Heatwave for Central PA

When I was a student at Penn State, I came back to visit during the 1988 Arts Festival and was in town when State College last reached 102 degrees. Being a weather fanatic who knew a lot about the local weather, I knew that I was in town for what may be the only 100 degree reading during my lifetime. The reason why is it takes a perfect scenario to actually reach 100 degrees in our area.

Last week it looked like we may get that scenario and this week it looks like we had a fair chance. Even into the middle of this week we thought it may happen, but it is so hard, we still had to go with the odds and kept the forecast for the upper 90s and mention the century mark. Why? Because so many things could interfere with reaching the mark. History proves the point as we really have only reached there last than a handful of times.

What created this perfect storm to create the heat?

First let's talk about the start of the heat wave itself:

- The South Central states have been in an extreme drought. A dry ground allows for the maximum heating from the sun and helps temperatures to reach as high as they can. Most major heatwaves need these air masses to build in the middle of the nation during such dry stretches.

- A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere developed over the middle of the nation allowing for a hot air mass to build there and then spread northward and eventually eastward.



But not every major heatwave will send our temperatures past the lower 90s. We needed a lot locally, specifically these things:

- We have been extremely dry. It's hard to even reach 90 in Central PA with a lot of moisture in the ground. The reason why is evaporation takes a lot of energy to happen. When there is evaporation from moisture in the ground, it prevents us from getting as hot as possible. Our vegetation and trees also sap moisture from the ground and put it out through their leaves. Therefore, we would need abnormal dryness to slow this effect and we did have this from late June through now.

- Lastly on top of all of the things mentioned above, we need two more things to help us get to 100. Sunshine and a westerly flow. This westerly flow downslopes from the highlands and this as air descends the increase of pressure allows the air to compress and warm. We had both the sunshine and this westerly flow for the past couple of days.