Skier's Outlook

While some ski resorts were treated to an early season record snowfall in October, November was a warm month and a lot of skiers were disappointed with no resorts open at the end of the month. So now we look to the future. It’s very interesting because the main overall controller of the nation’s winter is the same this year as last year. There is a La Nina again in the Pacific Ocean. As you can see from the following graphic this tends to bring stormy weather to the Northwest and cold weather to the Northern Plains into the Midwest. There is also a strong signal for dry and mild weather for the southern United States. The signature is much weaker for the eastern part of the nation, but La Nina does make the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast more prone to mild weather.

Though as we saw last year, other things can trump the La Nina. What affects our weather has more to do with the Atlantic and the Arctic. Last year, a pattern of warmer weather over the arctic helped to push cold air into the east which helped feed some storms along East Coast. So far this year, we have not had as favorable conditions, but the warm pattern of November has changed and there are indications that the arctic is becoming poised to send cold air into the East before Mid-December and a colder pattern seems likely for at least a couple of weeks. This will set the stage for resorts to get open and in at least decent shape for the big holiday week. While a near to colder average pattern may last into early January, a turnaround to milder weather looks like it may occur for later January into February. Hopefully, the resorts will be able to build up nice before then with manmade and natural snow. The good news is that years similar to this usually try turn colder again by March. This may help for a later season than last year. As for storminess, there is always the chance for a big one, but the coastal systems may tend to not blow up until they reach New England. We may have weaker and sloppier events farther to the south.