"What Happened to 'A Coating to an Inch'"

I'm sure many of you were asking that as the snow kept falling...and falling...and falling yesterday into last night.  I went on-air Saturday night forecasting nothing more than a coating to an inch for the deeper valleys to the south and east, including State College and Huntingdon.  Low and behold, I sit here typing 36 hours later and those areas are digging out from 6 to 10 inches of snow.  Farther west, the forecast held up relatively well, while those spots farther east in the "inch or less" area got rocked.  So, what went wrong?

The whole forecast was like walking on a tightrope.  A cold front was going to come through on Sunday, which would bring enough cold air to change the rain over to snow -- that was a given.  But, a potent storm was going to move along the fierce battle zone that was that front.  You know how we always talk about how the track of the storm means everything?  Forecasting Saturday night, I expected the storm to track over Harrisburg, with the front making enough progress to bring accumulating snow (3-6") to Elk, Cameron and Jefferson counties, but for most areas the cold air would arrive too late and the precipitation would already be over. 

So, the low didn't track over Harrisburg, but instead about 100 miles to the east in Philadelphia.  The cold air rushed into the entire area earlier in the afternoon and the storm took a track that is perfect for heavy snow in the eastern part of our area.  Bands of snow set up in these areas and just kept constantly dumping snow.

This also adds another forecasting headache for later this week - the threat for more flooding.  The melting snow will give the area rivers, streams and creeks high all week.  Add the chance for locally heavy rain Thursday and we may find ourselves bracing for flooding again.

So here are some of the snowfall totals you have sent in.  Thanks to everyone who did send them in, and thank you all for keeping the snide comments to a minimum.

PA Furnace (Huntingdon) 11"
Stormstown (Centre) 10"
Philipsburg (Centre) 9.5"
Spring Mills (Centre) 9"
State College (Centre) 9"
Beech Creek (Clinton) 8"
Todd (Huntingdon) 7"
McConnellstown (Huntingdon)  7"
Skelp (Blair) 6"
Three Springs (Huntingdon)  3.5"
Everett (Bedford) 2.6"

--Meteorologist Brian Thompson