NOAA Issues 2011 Hurricane Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put out their seasonal outlook for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.  They are forecasting an above-average season, which lasts from June 1st through November 30th.  The forecast is for:

• 12 to 18 named storms (normal is 11)
• 6 to 10 hurricanes (normal is 6)
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (normal is 2)

* A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, meaning winds are greater than 111 MPH.

This may come as a surprise, but we are coming off of a very active hurricane season last year.  Here are the specifics from last year:

• 19 named storms
• 11 hurricanes
• 5 major hurricanes (Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia and Karl)

The reason that it seemed like a quiet hurricane season is that the United States fared quite well given how many storms there were.  Despite there being 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, none of them made landfall along the United States, although a couple of those 11 hurricanes did bring some high surf to parts of the U.S. coastline.  Only two tropical storms made landfall along the U.S. coast during the 2010 season.

Other areas were not as lucky, as parts of the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America saw a number of tropical storms and hurricanes make landfall.  Hurricane Karl was the most destructive tropical cyclone to impact the state of Veracruz in Mexico, causing over $5 billion in damage.  Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Matthew both caused over a billion dollars in damage across parts of Mexico and Central America.

Hurricane Igor also made headlines in September as it came close to making a direct hit on Bermuda.  Despite many fears, damage on the island was much less than expected.  The storm then raced northeastward and lost its tropical characteristics, but still packed a punch as some called it the worst to ever hit the Canadian province of Newfoundland, causing $200 million in damage.  Flooding from the storm even washed out a portion of the Trans-Canada Highway.

--Meteorologist Brian Thompson